para3allic season tally: 78-71-3
Return on total units risked: 0.3% (0.84/299.00)
Recommendation #154: Take Clippers +3 (-110) vs Mavericks (May 1, 2024, 10 pm EST).
Discussion:
I disagree with this point spread. On my numbers I have the Clippers winning this game by 1.6 points vs the current spread of Mavs -3.
I get the markets’ concerns with Kawhi Leonard’s absence (he is currently out indefinitely and is unlikely to return in this Mavs series). I do take into account Leonard being out as well as Tim Hardaway, Jr being out for the Mavs in my numbers.
Leonard is absolutely vital for the Clippers to win this year’s championship, but I think there is sufficient fire power without him to beat the Mavs, especially as Mav’s Luka Doncic is nursing a bum knee. I have Doncic at 75% in my sims. See ESPN story below.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40064501/mavericks-luka-doncic-knee-not-good-ready-game-5
Moreover, the Clippers have done well without Leonard in this series winning game 1 by 12 and covering the +3.5 point spread, and winning game 4 by 5 and covering the +7 point spread.
By biggest concern is the dominance of the Mavs bigs — Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively over Clippers’ Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee — and how that plays out with the rebounding on both sides of the ball as well as the Clippers ability to score in the paint. If you will recall, it was James Harden’s drives to the basket at the end of game 4 that solidified their victory in what almost turned into an epic collapse of a 31-point lead. The Mavs will certainly look to switch a Doncic or Kyrie Irving on to either Clippers’ big to exploit the pick and roll. It is quite possible the Clippers will need to play some stretches with a smaller lineup if that turns out to be the case.
Enjoy your day!
-Bob
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