para3allic season tally: 77-71-3
Return on total units risked: -0.3% (-0.98/297.00)
Recommendation #153: Take Lakers +7 (-110) vs Nuggets (April 29, 2024, 10 pm EST).
Discussion:
The rec is predicated on the view that close out games are incredibly difficult. While I have the Nuggets winning the game tonight, I also have the Lakers covering what my numbers suggest is a chalky point spread.
I have the Nuggets winning by 4.1 points vs the current point spread of Nuggets -7. This assumes Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf strain. I think Murray ultimately plays and I have him at 80% of his median stats in the sims. This shows up more in his drives to the basket than his perimeter play. Any lack of explosiveness makes Murray’s famous 2-man pick and roll game with Nikola Jokic that much more challenging.
The greatest risk to the rec is the incentive the Nuggets have to close out tonight and what that says for their full game intensity. The Timberwolves swept the Suns winning game 4 last night. Twolves will have approximately 1 week to rest ahead of the next round. With Murray a little banged up, a Nuggets loss translates to playing at least 1 more game this coming Thursday.
The Lakers have started all 4 games with a lead. Given the game 4 Lakers victory, I suspect the Nuggets will play with more intensity from the jump because the Lakers have proven across 2 seasons of playoffs that they struggle once the Nuggets have the lead.
Enjoy your day!
-Bob
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